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-  There is overwhelming evidence that the web is being rebuilt around people. This is not a small change, it’s a fundamental re-architecture. We’re moving away from a web that connects documents together to a web that connects people together.

 

-  Despite being able to call anyone in our mobile phone address book, usually numbering hundreds of people, 80 percent of our phone calls are to the same four people. Ethnographer Stefana Broadbent has conducted a large amount of research into people’s communication behaviors. See her work at usagewatch.org

 

-  Three of the most influential people on how to think about the social web are Duncan Watts, Jonah Lehrer, and Robin Dunbar.

 

-  Move away from the idea of finding “influentials.” It is neither cost-effective nor efficient. We are all influential in different contexts. You need to find the everyday people who are passionate about what your brand does, and market to them. They will go on to tell their friends.

 

-  Our motivations for sharing online are the same as the motivations of our ancestors. We often update our status because we need information. Research has shown that the majority of tweets that mention brands are seeking information rather than expressing sentiment, and one in five tweets is about a product or service

 

-  Research has shown that social bonds are central to our happiness. The deeper the relationships someone has, the happier they will be.4 Women talk to form social bonds more often than men. Many of their conversations are aimed at building and maintaining their social network. Men more often talk about themselves or things they claim to be knowledgeable about, often because they are trying to impress the people around them

 

-  While people talk to make their lives easier, to form social bonds, and to help others, most of our conversations are a form of reputation management.7

 

-  The anthropologist Robin Dunbar described these conversations as “Who is doing what with whom, and whether it’s a good or bad thing, who is in and who is out, and why.”

 

-  Many research studies have shown that people don’t share facts, they share feelings.

 

-  Content that is positive, informative, surprising, or interesting is shared more often than content that is not, and content that is prominently featured is shared more often than content that is not, but these factors are minor compared to how arousing the content is.

 

-  Scientist Albert-László Barabási found that networks were governed by three laws.2 The first law is growth. As people go about their lives, they make new connections and the network grows. We tend to keep the connections we have, and add the new ones. One example of this is on Facebook, where we tend to add more people than we remove, and our friend count tends to slowly increase over time. The second law is preferential attachment. People with more connections tend to get even more connections. When all else is equal, our bias is to connect to the people who are already heavily connected. The third law is fitness. Fitness describes how desirable it is to connect to that person.

 

-  Our social network starts with our inner circle, which typically includes up to 5 people. As our core group, we turn to these people for advice, for emotional support, and in times of trouble.

Beyond this is a group of between 12 and 15 people. This group is known to social psychologists as the sympathy group. It’s all the people whose deaths would leave you distraught.

Beyond this is a group of about 50 people. These are the people who you communicate with on at least a semi-regular basis. This is the last group where you could confidently say you know about something that happened to them recently, or are generally aware of how they are doing.

 

-  Beyond that is a group of about 150. These are the people with whom you can maintain stable social relations. You know each of these people, and you know which of them know each other. Once a group goes beyond this number, we start to observe antisocial behavior, with people no longer acting in the best interests of the group.

 

-  #The Roman army was split into groups of about 150 so that everyone in the group knew each other and would stick together.4

 

-  The next group is about 500 people. These are our weak ties—friends of friends, people we meet occasionally, or people we met recently. These are people you know but don’t feel close to.

 

-  Needing to belong to groups is hard-wired into all of us. Many research studies have shown that

 

-  A researcher at Microsoft analyzed 30 billion instant messaging conversations on MSN and concluded that, on average, we are all connected through 6.6 people.#

 

-  Basic friendship patterns include people who only have simple friendships, usually fun friends and associates. They are not close to their family and often deal with emotional issues on their own.

 

The basic friendship pattern.

Intense friendship patterns include people who only have complex friendships, usually confidants and soulmates. They make a clear distinction between “true friends” and other relationships such as acquaintances

 

-  Focal friendship patterns include people who have both simple and complex friendships. They usually have a small core of soulmates and confidants, and a much larger group of fun friends

 

-  Broad friendship patterns include people who have both simple and complex friendships, and who also include a wider range of friendship types. In this kind of pattern, fun friends may be outnumbered by helpmates or confidants, though soulmates rarely number more than one or two.

 

-  On average, we have ongoing communication with between seven and fifteen people, but 80 percent of that is with the same five to ten people.6 Eighty percent of our phone calls are to the same four people.

 

-  Research on social networks has shown that they are primarily being used to strengthen existing relationships rather than build new relationships. In fact, the more people see each other in person and communicate on the phone, the more they communicate online.

 

-  For ideas to spread widely, you need connected groups of easily influenced people

 

-  In multiple research studies, Duncan Watts found that the most important factor in determining whether an idea spread was not whether there were influential people, but whether there was a critical mass of easily influenced people who were connected to other people who were easy to influence.5 When this critical mass of connected people didn’t exist, not even the most influential people could get an idea to spread widely. This means that understanding the structure of the network in which you seed ideas is much more important than understanding whether individuals have a high degree of influence.

 

-  Influence doesn’t flow from mass media to the masses

 

-  When people are unsure about how they should act or feel, they observe the people around them. This is known as social proof. Research shows that when we observe others, our brains simulate what they are feeling.

 

-  In a world of exponentially increasing information, decisions will be harder because our capacity for memory will remain the same. With exponentially increasing information, and limited capacity for memory, we will increasingly turn to others to help us decide

 

-  James Surowiecki defined four criteria necessary for a group decision to be accurate14:

• People’s judgments need to be independent, and not influenced by the other group members.

• People should have a diverse range of opinions, even if they are just multiple interpretations of the facts.

• People should be able to draw on local or specialized knowledge.

• All group members’ opinions need to be aggregated

 

-  Researchers Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler studied data collected from 5,000 people over a 20-year period. They found that your friends’ friends’ friends, usually people you don’t know, can have a dramatic impact on your behavior and the decisions you make.3 If your friend’s friend’s friend does something, that influences your friend’s friend, which influences your friend, which influences you. They found this across many behaviors, including weight loss and quitting smoking.

 

-  Psychologist Philip Tetlock conducted numerous studies to test the accuracy of advice from experts in the fields of journalism and politics. He quantified over 82,000 predictions and found that the journalism experts tended to perform slightly worse than picking answers at random. Political experts didn’t fare much better. They slightly outperformed random chance, but did not perform as well as a basic statistical model. In fact, they actually performed slightly better at predicting things outside their area of expertise, and 80 percent of their predictions were wrong. Studies in finance also show that only 20 percent of investment bankers outperform the stock market.17

 

-  Russo and Schoemaker studied fields outside of advertising and across 2,000 people found that 99 percent of people overestimated their success rate.18 Ironically, the reason for this overconfidence is having too much information. When we have too much information at our disposal, we lose track of which facts are most important, we draw correlations between sets of data when they are just coincidences,

 

-  We make a tiny minority of decisions with our rational brain. We make almost all of our decisions using our emotional brain. When trying to decide between multiple choices, we don’t carefully weigh up the options; rather, we use mental shortcuts, many of which are inaccurate and misleading.

Our conscious (rational) brain has very limited processing capabilities and relies on our nonconscious (emotional) brain to tell us what to do. In any given decision, our nonconscious brain does an incredible amount of invisible analysis and generates a feeling that it sends to our conscious brain. Our conscious brain then uses this feeling to make a decision. Reason is dependent on emotion. 

 

-  Neuroscience studies have shown that our brains not only look for the unexpected, they crave the unexpected.3

 

-  Brains are built to generate predictions. The ability to predict is the foundation of problem-solving. The neocortex stores memories and uses them to make predictions about what will happen next. It then observes what actually happens, and measures and records the difference. When we solve problems, our brain doesn’t compute the answer, it retrieves the solutions from memory.4 Our dynamic and constantly adjusting emotions are not hard-wired instincts, they are messages from our unconscious. The vast majority of our brain’s predictions happen outside of our awareness.

 

 

-  We give more weight to information that we’re conscious of, but our nonconscious brain has over 200,000 times more processing capacity than our conscious brain.5

 

-  Much social influence is processed by our nonconscious brain. We observe others’ behavior and pick up on their subtle cues about what is appropriate, without consciously realizing that we have altered our own behavior

 

-  When we need to make a decision, the nonconscious brain assesses the alternatives, generates a positive or negative feeling based on its conclusion, and sends that feeling to the conscious brain.

 

-  When there are few choices and few variables, the conscious brain makes better choices. However, our world is being filled with more variables and more choices. When things aren’t clear, when there are many incoming signals, our nonconscious brain makes better decisions.

 

-  The best way to influence people is to communicate with their nonconscious brain. In our world of exponentially increasing information, our conscious brain is overwhelmed and we make most decisions with our nonconscious brain.

 

-  As we recall memories, we remake them. Every time we remake them, we add fictional details to fill the missing gaps. Therefore, the more we remember something, the less accurate the memory become

 

-  The brain doesn’t care about accuracy or detail. It is only interested in remembering things it thinks will help us make decisions in the future. Our brain remembers and stores relationships between things, independent of the details. When it needs to remember details, it makes information up out of thin air to fill the gaps it left when it stored the memory. It pulls this information from all our other memories—past experiences, cultural norms, imagined outcomes—and fills in whatever detail it needs to create a seamless story.7 Our memories can be highly inaccurate

 

-  People who are similar to us in areas like personality, age, race, and preferences, and share the same values and beliefs, whether we know them or not, usually have a much greater influence over us than people not like us

 

-  Our behavior is influenced by who saw us act. We may act one way with one group, forcing us to act consistently when with them in the future, whereas we may act differently with another group.

 

-  Because of our desire for consistency with past actions, we are more open to ideas when they fit with our preexisting beliefs. It makes it easier for us to accept the new idea

 

-  We want more information and more choices than we can actually process

 

-  The larger number of choices were good for getting people’s attention, but were ultimately far worse for sales.

 

-   Although we want more information, when we have two or more conflicting ideas in our head, we become overwhelmed. This is known as cognitive dissonance and we often experience it when shopping. When this happens, we often pick the option that matches our current beliefs, and disregard all other options without evaluating them properly.

 

-  Most people will do far more to avoid losing what they already have than they will do to gain something new of equal value. This is part of a broader pattern called negativity bias, which shows that people feel more strongly about bad outcomes than good outcomes

 

-  As well as avoiding loss, we tend to overvalue immediate gains, and overlook what we might gain or lose in the future. We will decide on a guaranteed thing because it’s available now, even when a greater gain is available after a wait. We do this because we’re trying to avoid future risk. It’s hardcoded into our brain.

 

-  #Make people feel like they are getting something from you for free, and that they are getting it now. For example, Pedigree gave away one free meal to a dog in a shelter every time someone liked their Facebook page. They built a community of over one million people (and gave away over one million dog meals) because this community felt that they got something meaningful for free

 

-  In fact, we actively look for information that confirms our beliefs and don’t look for information that opposes our beliefs. This is why we have partisan bias in politics, despite the abundance of information on both sides

 

-  There are three primary ways of encouraging people to change their behavior:9

1. Change people’s environment; this is the most powerful way to effect change. Environment stimulates specific behaviors so it’s much easier to try something new in a new environment.

2. Increase the benefit relative to the cost of a new behavior. People seek to minimize costs and maximize benefits. Minimizing costs translates to breaking things down into small tasks, making the new behavior easier to perform, resulting in maximized benefits. Performing easier things makes them more likely to be repeated, which will lead to a new habit forming.

3. Ensure that people observe others doing the desired behavior and then see others being rewarded for it. We learn new behaviors by observing the people around us.

 

-  People are much more likely to buy meat that is labeled 85 pecent lean than meat that is labeled 15 percent fat, even though they are the same thing. Twice as many people opt for surgery when there is an 80 percent chance of surviving versus a 20 percent chance of dying.13

 

-  The factors that determine what people pay attention to have changed, and the era of successfully interrupting people to gain their attention is over